Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by kolop1 on February 12, 2013 at 12:25pm

I agree to a point. Though I can't imagine anyone wants nuclear fallout. That is a lose for everyone.

I don't believe N. Korea is doing anything more than dick waving as they know they could easily be wiped off the map.Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this won't happen, I just don't think it's very likely.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Kevin J Baird on February 12, 2013 at 3:08pm

It's the proliferation that's the good possibility.  I don't see North Korea firing off a couple missiles and then having their country turned into a parking lot from us obliterating it.  Though, they are very cult like and cults are known to do completely insane things.  

However, their lack of money is great and their needs many.  If someone agreed to pay them for the technology to either make a bomb of their own, or to purchase one outright, I don't see why the North would say No to this.  Especially if those Governments are viewed to them as friends and enemies of us.

At one point, for instance, North Korea shipped missiles to Yemen.  We stopped the boat, but Yemen protested and we had to let them through because of treaties with Yemen.  Such sales are common for the North.  They sell weapon systems, especially missiles, to countries that do not have the best relations with the UN Security Council.  

Pakistan had one man, Khan, give Nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya, and North Korea.  One made the bomb, one is making the bomb, and the third gave their's up before it was started.  It will only spread further.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by nutman on February 13, 2013 at 3:46am

What will really happen if they launch a missile: Assuming it doesnt explode on the launch pad, it will be shot down over the ocean by the American missile defense system that people question the existence of, and everyone will realize the military wasn't bullshitting anyone.

what will probably happen: nothing. China will feign concern. The only way I see the North going down is if China feels the US will try to do it first. After all, they only let North Korea exist to keep American bases away from their border. If things truly get out of hand they'll sweep in and install a puppet, and make North Korea some sort of 21st century vassal.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Kevin J Baird on February 14, 2013 at 1:49pm

Again, it's not really the threat of the North launching a missile and hitting the U.S.  (They could hit Japan or South Korea without much bother.)  That would be the end of their country if they did that.  They are freakish and may see themselves as having no other choice if their country were to implode.  But the time it would take them to fuel a missile would enable us to shoot it on the launch platform before they ever got it off the ground.  At least for right now.  Time moves forward and their missile technology continues to improve.

The danger is terrorism and other Governments having access to this technology.  Or worse, the weapons themselves.  The North could easily manufacture weapons to sell on the black market.  These could be brought over and detonated by container ship before inspection and wipe out parts of most coastal cities.  We can't stop drugs from entering the country.  A determined effort to bring a nuclear device into the country would meet success.  The only reason it hasn't is because...

(A)  There are only a few players who have nukes and the majority are friendly to us.

(B)  The cost to purchase a bomb would be incredibly expensive.

Most countries have enemies themselves and wouldn't want to have their own weapons used against themselves.  Pakistan and Russia for instance would not proliferate because it's more likely their own internal problems would come back to haunt them.

But North Korea is different.  They can manufacture a Uranium weapon for very cheap prices.  Because they don't pay their labor.  And they would have no qualms to selling to our enemies.  In fact, I imagine they'd embrace it.  Since they so tightly control their borders.  There is little chance their own exports would be used against them.

Logically, we might be able to figure out that the nuclear device came from North Korea.  I believe they can detect where the Uranium signature came from.  (Not sure if this is true of Uranium or just Plutonium)  But that might not be enough for us to attack their country, especially if they've stocked up on nuclear weapons.  South Korea would be dust.  Japan would certainly be struck.  And the nuclear fall out would be tremendous.

What's the alternative?  Right now, I don't see one.  Kim Jong Un seems to be following the military's lead and he is young and will not likely be out of power in my lifetime.  That means they will continue their escalation and we will find ourselves in a war.

I hope not.  I just can't see how it changes.

• ▶ Reply

▶ Reply to Discussion